Summit of Logistics Experts
The initiative to forecast the development of Germany as a logistics hub was founded in 2013 as the “Summit of Logistics Experts.” This independent group of experts, drawing on both academic and practical expertise, meets twice a year. At these in-person meetings, the experts discuss various scenario-based approaches to make predictions about the development of the logistics sector. In the spring, relevant topics are identified, and in the fall, the forecast for the following year is developed. The results are presented to the Federal Ministry of Transport and made available for assessing the situation. Dr. Christian Jacobi, a partner at ebp-consulting, has been involved since the beginning and supports the 30 experts from academia, logistics services, industry, retail, and logistics technology and services. At the fall summit on September 26, 2025, in Koblenz, the following results were developed as scenarios and packages of measures for 2026, which were presented for the first time on October 23 at the BVL Supply Chain CX Congress.
The Logistics Sector: Between Uncertainty and Innovation
The German logistics sector faces a year of major challenges and, at the same time, significant opportunities. In light of the volatile global economic and geopolitical situation, the expert panel developed three different scenarios for the year 2026 for the first time. The trend scenario, considered the most likely development, forecasts real growth of 0.5 percent and nominal growth of 2.6 percent. In the optimistic best-case scenario, the logistics sector could grow by 1.1 percent in real terms (3.2 percent in nominal terms), while the pessimistic worst-case scenario anticipates a real decline of 0.4 percent (a nominal increase of 2.1 percent). The current sentiment in the fall of 2025 shows a slightly negative assessment of the business situation amid stable investment intentions. The experts emphasize that the overall mood remains cautious and that the broad forecast range reflects the considerable uncertainties.
Seven Theses on the Economic Situation
The expert panel summarizes the situation in the logistics sector in seven key theses: First, the global and trade policy situation will certainly remain uncertain. Second, cyberattacks are expected to increase and consume a significant portion of IT budgets. Third, hopes for an economic recovery rest on German policymakers and their economic policies. Fourth, expectations for efficiency gains through automation, digitalization, and especially the use of AI remain high despite—or perhaps precisely because of—the current economic situation. Fifth, even with an improved labor market, there is still a shortage of IT, planning, and driving personnel in particular. Sixth, the relevance of sustainability issues is declining, at least for projects with short- and medium-term durations as well as in tenders. Seventh, cooperation between companies in certain market segments will inevitably increase due to the market situation.
Comprehensive scenario analysis
The three scenarios take into account different developments across five dimensions: In the best-case scenario, economic policy measures have a measurable and psychological impact, the global economy recovers, the global political situation stabilizes, the economy is ready to perform, and productivity gains through automation and AI become noticeable. The trend scenario assumes that economic policy measures remain insufficiently effective, investment reluctance persists due to uncertain global and trade policies, the construction and defense industries have too small a share to drive growth, private households remain cautious due to uncertainty, and IT budgets are tied up in cybersecurity projects. In the worst-case scenario, political measures have no measurable or psychological effects; the global political situation, marked by armed conflicts, remains tense; sales slumps among manufacturing companies increase; the population is unsettled; and IT budgets are reserved for defense capabilities.
“Logistics Innovations Made in Germany” package of measures
In response to the identified challenges, the expert group presents a comprehensive package of measures covering three areas of action. In the area of financing, a logistics innovation program with a strictly practice-oriented funding approach is proposed, in which impetus comes exclusively from the field and research institutions and startups act as partners. Instead of traditional funding, market and capital instruments are to be used, and the special fund is to be leveraged through private capital. Regarding networking, the expert group recommends simplification through open source and shared governance, leveraging cross-industry innovation potential, shared resource utilization, and Coopetition 2.0. In the area of implementation within companies, the focus is on modernizing corporate culture with greater expertise at the decision-making level, fostering a hunger for innovation through bottom-up and top-down ideas, as well as tolerance for failure, and positioning the sector as one open to integration.